Good Monday morning! I hope everyone has had a good weekend; we had an interesting one. Unfortunately, interesting does not mean I got out to the shooting range. I hope to do that sometimes soon, it has been too long, and I need some trigger time. For this week we have a few website highlights that we have rolled out. First of the weekly book review.
I really enjoyed Gunsmithing Modern Firearms for two reasons, the first being I can relate to the author. I am a left-handed shooter, who grew up in Vermont, and has a hobby that often exceeds my wallet. Secondly, he is not afraid to say, “I wrote this at the time, but looking back at it, here’s how I would have done it differently.” The book itself if well put together, and has many gems for people who do things on a shoestring budget, but want to do it right. I really appreciated the book and do recommended it for the budding gunsmith. You can read my full review here. Thoughts On: Gunsmithing Modern Firearms.
In keeping with the project I started on the SAAMI Pistol Cartridge Catalog, I have rolled out the SAAMI Rimfire Cartridge Catalog . Doing this project has really served two purposes, the first being to provide a slightly easier way to look up SAAMI Standards on cartridges. The second reason is to review the cartridges out there that have gain SAAMI recognition. It is not to say these are the only “Safe” or useful cartridges out there. Rather it is what the firearms industry has put into the money and effort to standardize which cartridges. Some of the pressures surprised me, frankly, I thought rimfire cartridges pressure wise were closer to shotgun pressures then modern pistol cartridges.
The last major update for this week is a write up on the 45 ACP cartridge. This is one of my favorite cartridges to load and shoot for. Not because I have any outdated notions of its ability to stop threats, rather I find it more pleasant to shoot then some of the other more modern cartridges out there. I am a big believer of carrying and practicing with a firearm that you enjoy shooting with, and in a cartridge, you enjoy shooting. For me, the 45 ACP has found that niche. If you would like to read my write up on the cartridges you can read it here: 45 ACP
With the website updates out of the way I wanted to take a moment to comment on some of the interesting news coming out of the firearms industry over the last few days. The first most notable event is the National Rifle Association has filed for bankruptcy. The NRA has committed that it will still honor all its memberships and it will still send out the monthly magazines. While I do not proport to be an expert in bankruptcy law, or for that matter finance, there are a few things I have learned about it being part of a couple companies that have gone bankrupt.
The first being, its bankruptcy is very often a good thing for a company, especially one that has been mismanaged and saddled with inordinate amounts of debt due to mismanagement. It does not seem like this is the case with the NRA. Rather it would seem it is a political or strategic move to restructure the organization and, in some way, facilitate its move to Texas. There is little doubt that some of this is in response to the investigation being conducted by the New York Attorney General into the NRA’s financial dealings.
If you have been following me for any length of time you will know I am not a huge fan of the leadership of the NRA. I think they are as crooked as crooked can be.
While some bankruptcies may lead to a restructuring of an organization, I would be surprised if that were the case in this instance. Perhaps I am being a bit cynical when I say that I believe this is a purely an attempt by the NRA to shake off some of the lawsuits and legal action being taken against them rather than to produce a change in leadership that would heal the fractured organization. Time will tell in terms of what will ultimately happen to America’s oldest civil rights organization.
Another thing that caught my eye was Winchester’s announcement of price increases for ammunition. Which started making rounds again despite the letter being dated in August 2020. They were not just increasing the price of future orders, but retroactively increasing prices for orders which had been placed but had yet to be fulfilled. Understandably this left a lot of consumers agitated.
While we are picking on Winchester for a letter dated in August 2020, we can expect similar market influences to increase ammunition prices across all the major brands.
While I think Winchester should honor sales made prior the increase in price announcements, I am not as alarmed by the increase. As we know, ammunition is largely made of metal, three primary metals are used in most of the ammunition manufactured, copper, zinc and lead. Well, I happen to be somewhat keen on the copper market as I worked for a time at a copper mine, and I do still consult for them. I know when the price of copper is high, business is likely to be good, and when it is low, less so. Right now, the price of copper is high. Excitingly so, at least for me.
Copper is a volatile commodity and there is no telling how long these high prices could last. We could see it drop next month, or it may be a year before the prices drop. A Copper Operation pictured to the left is where I continue to consult for and has been shutdown in part due to low copper price. The restart of this facility will produce at least a hundred jobs to a community that is severely lacking.
The last few weeks it has not been unusual to see copper hit $3.60/lb or higher. Last year this time, copper was below $2.70/lb. So, in the last few months we have seen copper price jump by almost 30%, which means the brass (70% of which is copper) and copper jackets all just cost at least that much more to make. It is good for the mining industry, but of course it depresses the ammunition industry.
While it is quite normal to see small increases in ammunition cost, especially when it comes to market inflation or increase market demand, Winchester’s increase seems to be more a response to an unplanned for increase in material cost, combine with high demand. The profit margin on ammunition is slim, it does not take much of an increase to wipe away that margin. The troubling thing with Winchesters approach is that it will likely set the price market wide. Smaller manufacturers look to larger manufacturers when it comes to price setting to be competitive. If Winchester can get away with a 10% or 30% increase on some product lines, then a smaller manufacturer is likely to try and increase prices as well.
Due to the political climate, it is likely we will continue to see the price and demand remain high. This is somewhat a uniquely United States issue, as those north of us, or those across the pond do not see ammunition and component shortages on the scale that we witness here. Undoubtedly, we will see the emergence of a new “bubble” where manufacturers begin to get used to selling everything they can possibly make. Especially if the Biden/Harris Administration are elected to a second term. With the unpredictable nature of politics and the resulting market fluctuations it is unlikely that we will see significant expansion in the production of primers or powders to respond to market demand. Too many people in the industry are still sore from the 2016 – 2017 market crash the industry experienced and are not too keen for a repeat.
What we are likely to see is the continued mainstreaming of alternate cartridge case material. This maybe the polymer cases that companies like True Velocity, Nammo, and PCP have been marketing. Or it could be steel, aluminum or, composite three-piece cartridge cases that SIG, and Shell Shock Technologies produce. I suspect it in the coming years this marketplace will become more and more competitive, especially if the cost of copper remains high. This is especially true if alternative case technology gets adopted by the US Military, as what gets adopted by the military usually receives a significant boost into being a commercial success.
Regardless of what happens we have had an interesting start to the year and the next four years are going shaping up to be quite interesting. As always if you are looking to get in touch, best way is to send me an email jay@theballisticassistant.com. You may check us out on Parler (if they ever get back online) Facebook, Instagram, MeWe, and Reddit. If you’d like to submit a load to our load database the instructions are here.
Stay Safe Out There!
The Ballistic Assistant